Religion has become an issue in the 2012 election

You can trace it back to Rick Santorum’s emphasis of his opposition to abortion. You can blame the media for concentrating on the fight over paying for birth control. It comes down to the same thing:

Religion is being discussed more and more this year.

What does this mean? It seems to Radnor that the candidates’ frequent reference to their faith and focus on religious issues has triggered this discussion.

Radnor focus groups sometimes show a rawness that we have not encountered before. Once the candidates started talking about religious issues, it seemed to give the public a green light.

It’s not pretty. Some blame the president. Others blame Rick Santorum. Sadly, many of the candidates will be hurt by this concentration on social issues.

The first “real” Republican debate

Rep. Michele Bachmann’s most important achievement in the New Hampshire debate was the contrast she created between her competent performance and the image that many have of Sarah Palin’s lack of substance. Bachmann hopes people will say, “she’s like Sarah Palin but without the problems.” That may not be fair to Palin but, by not jumping into the race, Palin allows others to mould and misstate her image. Bachmann is an opportunist and an effective one: How many times did she remind debate-watchers that she is the chair of the House tea party caucus? She created the caucus as a platform for herself.

Bachmann’s second major achievement was demonstrating that she could handle the role of “alternative to Mitt Romney.” As others stumbled or played it safe, she won style points on both likability and cogency. Her social conservatism, which may be a problem later, served her well last night.

Expect some of those who have been attacking Palin to start digging into Bachmann’s past. As for the other GOP candidates trying to catch Romney, expect them to be wary of attacking Bachmann. A few may patronize her. She will have a temporary advantage because the boys will not know what to make of her. Expect her to exploit every opportunity.

See you in 2012!

The Conflict Index will return in 2012 with information about the 2012 elections. We will have occasional posts in 2011.

November 1: An even bigger wave?

Democratic campaign professionals are disheartened. Nothing they have done has changed the outlook.

Republican campaigners are cautious. They are having trouble measuring the support that their candidates will receive from Tea Party voters.

Tea Party activists are convinced that their focus on the growth and intrusiveness of the federal government will yield results. They point out that many Tea Party supporters are social moderates and liberals. As a group, social moderates and liberals who support smaller and less invasive government are reluctant to respond to pollsters. But they do vote.

This could be a bigger wave than anticipated by the media.

November 1: GOP +9 Senate and +61 House

The size of the wave is becoming more apparent on the House side but we continue to see less movement on the Senate side. A GOP gain of 9 seats would result in a 50-50 split (the 2 independents are expected to caucus with the Democrats). Republicans will begin to court conservative Democrats such as Ben Nelson of Nebraska.

We are at the point where objective analysis leaves off and subjective judgements take over. We choose not to go there. We agree that there are signs of a bigger wave than anticipated. When waves get rolling, they wash away everything in their path.

West Virginia seems to be settling back into Democratic territory. A huge wave would put West Virginia in Republican hands. Washington should end up as a Republican pick-up, but the Democrats are adept at vote-stealing, especially in the Seattle area.

We see signs that California’s Senator Boxer has maxed out with Republican Fiorina still rising. This could be a big surprise.

The Republicans could end up with a Senate majority, depending on the size of the wave.

October 28: GOP +9 Senate and +54 House

Democratic comebacks have stalled in House races but not Senate contests. Washington may yet tip to Rossi and the GOP but West Virginia is heading back to blue.

As downstate Illinois voters start recording their preference, Republican Kirk seems likely to build on a thin lead. Nevada is increasingly likely to retire Majority Leader Reid.

And California may see more tightening: Radnor believes that the current turnout models are overestimating the Democratic turnout.

October 25: GOP +9 Senate and +52 House

Projecting turnout is difficult this year. Some of the widely circulated national polls may be underestimating Republican turnout. If so, many more Democrats could be swept away next week.

The article below gives some of the reasons.

October 22: Who will vote? Nobody knows but …

As Radnor analyzes various polls across the country, we reach a conclusion that may signal a more difficult election night for Democrats than now anticipated. The problem in 2010 is not determining how voters will cast their ballots. That is hard enough for pollsters. But this year the voters are clear and, as usual, party identification is the leading indicator of how voters will behave. But which voters will vote?

Even the restlessness of independent voters, who are swinging away from their 2008 preferences for President Obama and Democratic candidates, does not muddy the waters too much. The pollsters have picked up and gauged the strength of the switch to the Republicans this year.

Pollsters are struggling with turnout. Most polling companies started with 2008 figures and then extrapolated based on assumptions and screens to eliminate likely stay-at-homes. But Radnor concludes that just as the pollsters underestimated the Obama-driven turnout in 2008, they may be underestimating Republican turnout this year. The Massachusetts, Virginia and New Jersey elections since 2008 have shown actual voting patterns more consistent with  2004 or 2006, not 2008.

In many states, modeling the 2010 turnout on 2004 or 2006 would add a net 1.5% to 4% to the vote totals Republican candidates can expect. Some states – Colorado, for example - do not seem to be reverting to earlier turnout patterns. The polls there seem to reflect what may happen on election day.

But the results in many other too-close-to-call races may see more votes for Republican candidates than the current nationally publicized polls are projecting. Obviously, only after the election will we know for sure, but we believe that many of the widely circulated national polls understate the likely GOP turnout.

Some polling companies are now forecasting a larger turnout by Democrats than earlier anticipated. We agree. But we are seeing an even greater turnout by independents than forecast by these pollsters. Measuring turnout by independents is more difficult because independents vote in lower percentages in off-years. But 2010 is not a typical off-year.  

If Radnor’s analysis is correct (and we do not have enough data or experience to have complete confidence) then Republican Senate and House candidates in states such as Nevada, California, Washington, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New York, Illinois, Wisconsin and Delaware will do better than the final polls project – by enough in some cases to overtake their Democratic rivals.

October 19: GOP +9 Senate and +51 House

Two more House seats have slipped away from the Democrats but the Democrats are closing the gap in several races and could bring the gap down to 46 if trends continue.

Early voting shows that white men are replacing black women as the predominate demographic in North Carolina. If that trend continues, Republicans will benefit.

Nevada’s early voters show a higher turnout for Republicans than voter registration figures would indicate.

October 15: GOP +9 Senate and +49 House

Four more House contests have slipped from the Democratic to the Republican column. In three cases, this is due more to Democrats being unable to remain competitive in advertising budgets. Organized labor plans to move into at least two of the three. Labor may be too late. Why weren’t they there before?

In one district, the Republican has been climbing steadily and over the past 11 days has taken and increased the lead.